Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Food for thought: I (A question from Economics on Growth)

I wanted to blog it up before it goes out of my mind. It just came: What if the RBI decides to change the value of the Rupee ( I don't remember the exact terminology of the event hence I need to be verbose ). What I mean is lets say the amount of money we now call 100 rupees is made equal to 1 rupee. One rupee in that case would mean One paisa and current lakh of rupees post change would be a thousand. Such steps have been taken in the past by the reserve banks across the globe. Specially in cases of hyper inflation (like Zimbabwe) where the reserve bank is forced to print notes worth thousand of trillion. I hope the reader understands why this change of value is required under such scenario.
Now take the case of exchange rate. A pound which is usually equal to 80 rupees would be equal to 80 paise. Apparently it seems that the home currency would value up in that case. Due to my ignorance or my amnesia of forgetting the exact terminology I will cause this phenomenon "valuing" the currency. The opposite step would be "De-Valuing"
So my question is if the RBI values up the Rupee will it cause a GDP growth or the opposite?
Let me give you some facts: normally when the currency becomes stronger to a foreign currency lets say the dollar. It leads to reduction of export. Remember 2007 when the rupee was at 38-39 against the dollar. The Textile & Jewelery industry was taking a beating due to reduced exports. This is simply because of the fact that a foreign customer had to pay more to get the same object. So if the Rupee is "Valued" apparently the home currency gets stronger and exports would reduce. So in that case growth would be reduced. Actually this is not true, it can be shown that "valuing" or "devaluing" the currency does not have any effect on Net Exports of a country. Get any book on international economics and the explanation would be there.
I have a different conclusion to draw, nothing to do with the exchange rate but something to do with the Growth. The thought came when I was to make a choice between two places for dinner. I was informed that the difference in cost between the places would be absolutely 1 Ringgit (Malaysian Currency). I had a hearty laugh in fact all of us had, caring less for the one ringgit and removing the constraint of that one ringgit from the choice. However I soon thought that if I convert that one ringgit to rupee it becomes around fourteen. And then Hey!!! Fourteen Rupees!!. I am sure if the currency was pound the same thought would have come to the mind. So here brings my question. If the RBI values the rupee exactly by fourteen and I am in India. The situation would be absolutely same. I, in fact most of the people like me have a similar perception of one rupee. We would not care much in spending that extra one rupee. What that means is consumption increases, this should lead to a GDP growth. What if during the recession the Fed in US had taken a similar decision?? I know this conclusion is extremely debatable. But short term economics (Demand-Supply) is extremely fickle: something as I explained. So in the short run under such a scenario we might see growth. The economists out there any thought???

3 comments:

Natrajan said...

I don't agree with you in this.

Spending 1 more rupee is not the same as spending one more dollar/euro.

People in short term might react inefficiently to re-valuation of a currency, but in the long run they would optimise their spending according to the value of the currency.

Soumyajyoti said...

@ Nattu you are taking things theoretically..It is known that spending one more ruppe is not same as spending one more dollar. But here comes the fickle-mindedness of the consumers. Just take the example of my case.
I agree that Long term every thing will be optimized. I have remarked the same in the article. But have we ever known or experienced what is long term? How long the term is? Have we ever known what is the long term Aggregate Supply Curve of a nation?

Gregory said...

It seems too much of stretch to imagine that making 100Rs as 1 Rs will boost consumption.... people are wary of the "value" they are going to spend..not the number...

If 100 Rs buys a perfume....it means from my existing income i will loose value equivalent to that perfume not JUST one ruppee.